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Tobias Krüger

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Tobias Krüger
Writer on betting mathematics and stake sizing

Tobias works out what a price means and what the bookmaker’s margin costs. His pieces carry the calculation, not the story of a betting week.

3 Articles published
Published odds only Sources used
None Operator affiliations

Expertise

Value Betting Bankroll Management Kelly Criterion Live Betting Analysis Odds Modeling Betting Mathematics Closing Line Value Statistical Modeling

About Tobias

Tobias writes on this site about the part of betting that can be worked out: how a price translates into a probability, how much of it is the bookmaker’s margin, and which stake size belongs to which risk.

The arithmetic is the same at every operator and needs no database: at odds of 1.90 against 1.90 the implied probabilities add up to 105.3 per cent — the 5.3 points above 100 are the margin, and they are charged however the match ends.

That is why no betting logs and no strike rates appear in his pieces. A log nobody can verify is not evidence; a price from the bookmaker’s own site is.

On the Kelly criterion the most important sentence is a warning: the formula assumes a genuine edge. Without one it does not produce an optimal curve but an accelerated losing one — and having an edge is the exception, not the starting point.

What he does not provide belongs in the profile too: no tips on individual matches, no assessment of prices and no betting advice.

He writes for this site independently and is not employed by any operator. This site is an affiliate publisher and says so openly.

Background & Credentials

  • Works from published odds, not from test runs
  • Every figure in the text can be checked with a calculator
  • No access to bookmaker or player data — and no claim that would need it
A price is a probability plus a margin — and the two can be separated.— Tobias Krüger

Articles by Tobias

4 Articles

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Tobias write about?
Betting mathematics: converting odds into probabilities, the bookmaker’s margin, stake sizing, and the limits of the Kelly criterion.

Where do the figures in his articles come from?
From published odds and the arithmetic anyone can do with them. Earlier versions of this page cited an «internal database of over 47,000 documented tips» — no such database exists, and this site has no access to operator data.

Who are his articles for?
For readers who want to know how the price of a bet is formed. They do not help anyone win more, and they do not claim to.

Does he publish his own bets or strike rates?
No. A strike rate without a verifiable log is not evidence, and a log covering a few weeks says little mathematically in any case.

Does he give individual betting advice?
No. The pieces are general information; there are no tips on individual matches here.

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